Stock prices are relatively unchanged on the year

2015’s prevailing broad market trading pattern – frequent, almost weekly reversals – continued with a decline, after a rise the week before, and a decline the week before that. A mixed week for us. Some long positions continued rising, others fell; some short positons continued declining, others rose. Whether it was a net productive week depends on which positions you hold. Very few trades this weekend.

32 weeks into the year the major indexes – with S&P500 flat, Nasdaq Composite slightly positive, Dow30 negative – would suggest stock prices are relatively unchanged on the year. Many of our stocks, however, chosen purposefully for having the greatest potential for significant price change, have declined in price dramatically in just the past 8-12 weeks, reflecting a “stealth” bear market.

Combined with our preparedness to sell short, these dynamic stocks continue to provide multiple opportunities to earn short-term gains of +10%, +20%, +30% and greater. Compare that outcome to that of the many investors passively holding these same stocks long – their capital is vanishing at a significant rate, which may take years to recover from. Analytics help us avoid that investment trap.

A number of “explosions” and “implosions” occurred again last week. It is disconcerting to see this many instances of dramatic trading reaction by institutional investors “surprised” by company performances on which they are supposed to have good insight and information.

Highlights: Only 2 new weekly highs in recent positions.
Congrats to those of you locking in a 7 week gain of +89.4% in CARA – one of the best and shortest-term gains in Level 1 this year.

No double-digit gains in any open long positions.

9 new weekly lows. Double-digit short gains in ABUS (was TKMR) +21%, BAS +25%, CVTI +23%, ECA +44%, ERF +32%, HPQ +10%, MAT +11%, MDXG +11% (first week), NVIV +10% (first week), PDS +24%, SEAS +13% and VICR +25%.

Stock list changes: Reminder that TKMR is now ABUS (Arbutus Biopharma). Deleting LOCK after routine scheduled evaluation.

Adding Planar Systems Inc (PLNR) [electronic instruments] with a past 14 month compound trading return of +129.0% and trade indicated.

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