Major indexes finished the week about even with where they started – but not without enormous swings down and up in between – which is why weekly trading is often more advantageous than daily trading, as weekly analysis smooths daily market action that would lead daily traders to over-trade and suffer systemic trading losses from intra-week market choppiness. Even on a weekly basis, trade durations remain shorter-than-usual and a higher percentage of stocks on the Level 1, 2 and 3 lists remain stagnant and/or in the red at present, including most oil-related stocks.
Major index values are barely in positive territory for the year. The longest – and only – sustained market uptrend in 2015 (so far), of only 5 weeks duration, was preceded by a larger – and the only – sustained downtrend of the year, such that index values remain below the highs set in May and July. Analytic signals point to vanishing positive sentiment among institutional investors as the year reaches a close, suggesting a greater likelihood that the next sustained trend in December or 2016 may be downward. Next year could be one in which short trades provide the bulk of gains early on.
As 2015’s erratic, often trend-less broad market limps to the finish line, many stocks are at or near 52-week lows or negative for the year, and numerous professional money managers are reporting losses-to-date – not good news for passive investors. We too may not be locking in as many large trading gains as in recent years, and also experiencing a frustratingly higher frequency of unproductive outcomes, but still continue to identify productive trades long and short, confirming that active trading per stock-specific analysis remains the most productive investment strategy no matter the behavior of the broad market.
Highlights: 5 new weekly highs. Double-digit long gains in MESG +21%, NOAH +29%, PLNR +10%, TRUE +21% and VIMC +14%. Locking in long gain of 10% in PLNR (10 wks) – company was bought by Leyard Optoelectronics which paid $6.58 per share to PLNR stockholders – your brokerage account should reflect this cash transaction.
Only 1 new weekly low. Double-digit short gains in AHGP +28% and DENN +15%.
Stock List Changes: Substitutions continue as new highly productive stocks replace those which have become stagnant, erratic or simply less productive. Deleting PLNR (stock delisted 11/27 per buyout, see above) and SEAS.
Adding Methanex Corp (MEOH) [chemical manufacturing] with a past 14 month compound trading return of +79.0% with trade indicated.